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Diversification: 60/40 Portfolio vs S&P 500 (Part 2)

In Part 1 of this series, we explored why diversification matters and how combining assets that behave differently can reduce risk, smooth volatility, and help investors stay disciplined during market stress.

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Source: VT Markets

The Setup: 100% Stocks vs The 60/40 Portfolio

We compare the performance of two portfolios from January 2011 to October 2025:

  • 100% Stocks: 100% SPY, representing the U.S. equity market.
  • 60/40 Portfolio: 60% SPY and 40% AGG, a U.S. core bond ETF.

Here is how an investment grew over that period in total %.

Growth of 10,000 dollars for 100% SPY versus a 60/40 portfolio (SPY and AGG), based on adjusted closing price data from Yahoo Finance. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Performance Statistics: Return and Risk Side by Side

Metric100% SPY60/40 Portfolio
(SPY 60%, AGG 40%)
CAGR14.0%11.1%
Annualized Volatility17.2%12.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.810.86
Max Drawdown-33.7%-26.5%

Volatility: How “Bouncy” Your Portfolio Feels

Volatility measures how widely your portfolio’s value swings over time. Higher volatility means sharper ups and downs. Lower volatility means smaller, more predictable movements in your account balance.

Rolling 1-year annualized volatility for 100% SPY versus the 60/40 portfolio, based on adjusted closing price data from Yahoo Finance.
Rolling 1-year annualized volatility for 100% SPY versus the 60/40 portfolio, based on adjusted closing price data from Yahoo Finance.

Max Drawdown: The Pain Index

Max drawdown measures the worst loss from peak to trough during the period. As we see, the 60/40 Portfolio saw a lower drawdown compared to a 100% SPY portfolio

  • 100% SPY: -33.7%
  • 60/40 Portfolio: -26.5%

Correlation: The Engine Behind Diversification

The 60/40 portfolio works because stocks and bonds do not move in perfect sync. Their moderate correlation helps bonds provide stability when stocks are under pressure.

Correlation matrix for SPY (SP 500), AGG (Core US Aggregate Bond), and selected global assets based on daily returns from 2011 to 2025.
Correlation matrix for SPY (SP 500), AGG (Core US Aggregate Bond), and selected global assets based on daily returns from 2011 to 2025.

What This Means for Real Investors

Over the 2011 to 2025 period, the diversified 60/40 portfolio did not deliver the highest ending value. However, it offered:

  • Lower volatility and fewer large swings
  • Shallower maximum drawdowns
  • A higher Sharpe ratio and better risk efficiency
  • A smoother path that is easier to stay committed to

Disclaimer:

The content on this blog (“Zorroh”) is provided for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended as investment, financial, tax, legal, or other professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.


Rohan Bhatia, cfa